AGP Executive Report

National Dialogue Prep: Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Commission is holding orientation sessions ahead of the July 15 conference in Addis Ababa, stressing inclusiveness, participation, equality, and consensus-building to tackle peace, nation-building, human rights, and social development. Tigray Peace Pact Fallout: Tigray authorities say the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement is “collapsed,” accusing the federal government of blocking implementation and preparing renewed conflict, while the federal side rejects the restored TPLF-linked administration’s legitimacy. Green Legacy Spotlight: Diplomats and a climate scientist praised Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative as a global model for inclusive climate resilience, citing tens of billions of seedlings planted and a 2026 push to plant 8 billion more; international parliamentary delegates also joined tree-planting at the House of Peoples’ Representatives. Security Forum Message: Retired Lt.-Gen. Tukur Yusuf Buratai told an Addis Ababa intelligence-security forum that Africa must lead its own security solutions, warning against overreliance on foreign interventions. Governance & Oversight: The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission unveiled a new five-year strategy after closing its previous plan, including results from its electronic case management system and transitional justice work. Public Finance Watch: A federal audit flagged 8.46 billion birr in uncollectible tax arrears, while the Customs Commission reported 738 billion birr in duty and contraband revenue and large duty-free incentives.

US–Ethiopia Security Ties: The U.S. reaffirmed enhanced security cooperation with Ethiopia at Addis Ababa’s Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum, stressing information sharing and stronger institutions to tackle terrorism, cyber threats, and trafficking. Tigray Conflict Risks: A former House of Federation speaker warned that the banned TPLF is undermining Tigrayan stability through institutional mechanisms and alleged links with other actors, raising fears of renewed militarization and forced recruitment. Banking Governance: Anbesa Bank shareholders are pushing for an urgent meeting with the NBE governor after the central bank revoked approval tied to board election minutes, prompting calls for clarity and a fresh election. Hospitality Tax: Addis Ababa City Council ratified a 5% municipal tax on hotel and lodging room tariffs, aiming to fund urban infrastructure and tourism upgrades. Food Safety Row: Ethiopia’s agriculture ministry denied issuing legal import permits for Ugandan meat, launching an investigation after reports of a shipment to Addis Ababa hotels. Regional Climate Early Action: IGAD’s ICPAC and Action Against Hunger unveiled a $4.5m, 24-month anticipatory action initiative to protect nearly 250,000 people across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti. Horn of Africa Maritime Politics: Somalia formalized an Egypt maritime ports MoU, a move Ethiopia criticized as excluding Addis from Red Sea governance discussions. Immigration Shock in the US: The U.S. extended TPS work permits for Haitians and several other countries, including Ethiopia, after Supreme Court action—buying short-term time before authorizations expire.

Ebola & Deportations: Lawyers say a suspected Ebola patient was placed in an Equatorial Guinea hotel housing US deportees under a third-country deal, as the outbreak in Congo tops 600 deaths and raises new health-diplomacy questions. National Dialogue: Ethiopia’s religious leaders back the national dialogue as the route to end cycles of conflict, urging a dialogue culture rooted in customary and faith-based dispute resolution. Security & Cyber-Policy: Ethiopia hosted a two-day Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum in Addis Ababa, with lawmakers and experts calling for renewed multilateral cooperation against terrorism, cybercrime, and AI-driven risks. Digital Government Payments: Ethiopia moved from policy to execution, convening ministries, the central bank, and EthSwitch to roll out interoperable person-to-government and government-to-person payments nationwide. Food Self-Sufficiency: The “Bounty of the Basket” initiative reported big jumps in milk, chicks, eggs, poultry, fish fingerlings, and honey—framing it as food sovereignty plus jobs. Investment Climate: Ethiopia’s Investment Commission reported record foreign inflows and hundreds of new permits, linking gains to macroeconomic reforms and special economic zones. Regional Forensics Training: Ethiopia launched an IGAD-linked forensic scholarship programme named after Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu to build regional criminal investigation capacity. BRICS Women & Development: A BRICS women’s meeting urged putting women at the center of economic plans, highlighting access to finance and leadership as key gaps. Kenya-Lamu Corridor Watch: Kenya pushed for regional backing for the Lamu port–corridor as Dangote’s refinery plans expand the Horn’s energy and logistics stakes. Migration Politics Abroad: A UK court ruled changes to trafficking protections under the “one in, one out” asylum returns deal were unlawful, a reminder of how legal guidance can reshape migration outcomes.

Regional Trade & Diplomacy: A high-level Canton Fair promotion in Addis Ababa—hosted with the AU—aims to help African exporters break into China’s market and deepen Sino-Africa trade ties. Energy Integration: Ethiopia assumed the Eastern Africa Power Pool chairmanship, pledging faster regional electricity connectivity and market-building. Security Cooperation: The Ethiopian Federal Police and IGAD signed an MoU to expand Horn of Africa security collaboration through training, research, and community policing. Justice & Capacity Building: Ethiopia launched the Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu Scholarship Programme in Forensic Science to train IGAD-member students and strengthen regional criminal investigations. Human Rights: Ethiopia wrapped up a prominent role at the UN Human Rights Council, chairing meetings and engaging in dozens of dialogues. Public Health: Africa CDC warned the Ebola outbreak in DRC and Uganda has surpassed 600 deaths, citing financing and safe-burial gaps. Investment & Exports: Ethiopia reported $4.32bn FDI inflows in 2025/26 and record export earnings, pointing to reform-driven dollar inflows.

Regional Power Talks in Addis: Ethiopia’s Water and Energy Minister Habtamu Iteffa opened the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) steering committee meeting, saying Ethiopia will push an integrated regional electricity market under constitutional governance, institutional integrity, regional solidarity, and the rule of law. Tigray Rights Under Scrutiny: Human Rights Watch alleges Tigray authorities are forcibly recruiting men and boys, including from mining sites, amid fears of renewed conflict; TPLF denies the claims. Diplomacy and Security Signals: Russia’s FM Sergey Lavrov began an Africa tour with a visit to Addis Ababa, urging a bigger African role in global decision-making, including UN Security Council reform. Forensics Scholarship for Police: Ethiopia announced the Dr Workneh Gebeyehu forensic science scholarship for IGAD member states, with Kenya eligible, aimed at strengthening cross-border crime investigation capacity. Aid and Localisation Debate: Addis hosted the 10th East Africa Philanthropy Conference, where delegates warned that shrinking external aid is forcing a shift toward “anchoring systems” and funding what’s already strong in communities. Sudan Spillover Near Ethiopia: The Sudanese army reported retaking Kurmuk from RSF near the Ethiopian border, promising civilian protection and service restoration. Ethiopia–Zambia Sports: Zambia’s “Copper Princesses” left for Addis for the second leg of the U-17 Women’s World Cup qualifier, chasing qualification. Energy for Small Businesses: PUFF awarded $1.5m to 19 companies across Kenya, Nigeria, and Ethiopia to expand solar-powered productive appliances and green jobs.

Tigray Conflict Risk: Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed told parliament that Tigray forces are preparing for renewed conflict, citing intensified forced conscription and accusing the TPLF of violating the Pretoria peace deal. National Dialogue Logistics: Thousands of participants are arriving in Addis Ababa ahead of the July 15 opening of Ethiopia’s main National Dialogue forum, with about 4,000 deliberators set to discuss eight agenda items. Investment & Digital Push: Diplomats praised Ethiopia’s macroeconomic reforms and digital transformation for improving the investment climate, while EthSwitch said it is exploring expanded cooperation with Huawei on AI, payments, and cross-border connectivity. Gold Deal Watch: Ethiopia is positioning Zijin’s C$5.5 billion Allied Gold acquisition as a key step toward bringing the Kurmuk gold project into industrial production. Regional Diplomacy: Russian FM Sergey Lavrov met Abiy and AU leadership in Addis to deepen strategic cooperation on trade, technology, and multilateral coordination. BRICS Anti-Drug Agenda: BRICS anti-drug agencies adopted the Guwahati Declaration, calling for faster intelligence sharing and digital tools to tackle synthetic drug trafficking. Governance & Oversight: Safaricom shareholders are set to vote on AGM changes that would expand Vodafone Kenya’s influence over CEO nomination and board composition.

Russia-Ethiopia Diplomacy: Russian FM Sergey Lavrov met PM Abiy Ahmed and Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos in Addis Ababa, agreeing to deepen “strategic” cooperation on trade, technology, infrastructure and humanitarian projects, while also holding consultations with AU Commission Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf. BRICS Anti-Drug Push: BRICS anti-drug agencies meeting in Guwahati adopted the Guwahati Declaration, calling for faster intelligence and best-practice sharing, plus stronger action against synthetic drugs and precursor diversion—Ethiopia presented its national drug control strategy at the forum. Tigray Rights and Security: A Tigray peace forum in Addis Ababa urged an immediate end to forced military conscription, warning that any return to armed conflict would trigger another humanitarian catastrophe. WTO Accession Step: Ethiopia signed a bilateral market access protocol with Thailand at the WTO in Geneva, marking another milestone toward full WTO membership. AU Trade Promotion: The AU promoted the 140th Canton Fair in Addis Ababa, pitching it as a bridge for African firms to reach global buyers and partners. Ethiopia Plant Health: Ethiopia reaffirmed support for the African Phytosanitary Programme, stressing plant health as key to food security and safe intra-African trade.

Ethiopia-Russia Diplomacy: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met Russian FM Sergey Lavrov in Addis Ababa, reaffirming long-standing ties and discussing trade, investment, and technology transfer, including coordination within BRICS. Parliament & Security: Abiy told lawmakers the ENDF can defend Ethiopia’s sovereignty, accusing the TPLF of forced conscription and links to external actors, as MPs review the 2026/27 federal budget. Exports & Reform Momentum: Ethiopia reported record export earnings of $10.7bn in 2025/26, driven by gold, coffee, oilseeds, cut flowers, and electricity exports—contrasting with Somalia’s funding squeeze after US security cuts. Budget Watch: The House of People’s Representatives approved a 2.339-trillion Birr federal budget for the 2019 fiscal year, with major allocations for education, roads, health, agriculture, energy, and urban development. Health & Service Delivery: Abiy highlighted a jump in domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity (from 4% to 44%) and major spending on medicines and medical equipment, alongside expanded hospital capacity. Regional Integration & Local Governance: Coverage stressed the growing role of county and local governments in East African integration, arguing service delivery and climate adaptation hinge on local implementation. BRICS Anti-Drug Push: BRICS anti-drug agencies adopted the Guwahati Declaration, emphasizing real-time intelligence sharing, digital tools, and coordinated law enforcement against synthetic drugs and transnational organized crime. Ethiopia in the Global Health Pipeline: Orbis International’s BOOST Africa study says a $2,500 “micro-investment” plus a smartphone app nearly doubled cataract surgery success rates in Ethiopian hospitals. Climate Risk: UN agencies warned El Niño could hit Ethiopia and other East African states, prompting calls for over $200m to protect 8.8m people across high-risk countries.

Parliament & Budget: Ethiopia’s House of People’s Representatives unanimously approved a 2.339-trillion Birr budget for the 2019 fiscal year, keeping the deficit at 1.4% of GDP and boosting major allocations including education, health, roads, agriculture, energy and urban development. PM Abiy on Governance: In parliament, Abiy said community conflicts have eased thanks to expanded public dialogue, and framed the national dialogue as a historic chance to forge a new social contract. National Dialogue & Sovereignty: Abiy reiterated Ethiopia’s diplomacy is built on decision-making sovereignty and strategic self-reliance. Economy & Exports: Ethiopia reported record export earnings—about $11bn for 2025/26—driven by gold and coffee, alongside claims of strong forex inflows. Healthcare Push: Abiy said domestic pharmaceutical capacity jumped from 4% to 44%, with major spending on medicine procurement and medical equipment. Tigray Rights Alarm: HRW alleged Tigray authorities are forcibly recruiting children, including those as young as 15, intensifying fear ahead of renewed conflict. Ebola Response: Africa CDC backed a clinical trial targeting the Bundibugyo Ebola strain in the DRC and Uganda, calling it a key step where no licensed tools exist. Russia Ties & BRICS: Lavrov met Ethiopia’s foreign minister, stressing expanded cooperation and BRICS coordination, while Russia and the AU agreed to hold annual political consultations. Aviation Safety: Ethiopia’s transport minister said preliminary flight-recorder data from Flight 302 shows “clear similarities” with a prior Boeing 737 MAX 8 crash, with analysis underway.

Diplomacy: Russia’s FM Sergey Lavrov arrived in Addis Ababa for an official working visit, signaling deepening Ethiopia–Russia ties across politics, trade, and security. African Union Politics: AU Commission Chairperson Mahamoud Ali Youssouf met President’s special envoy Mohamed Salem Ould Salek to brief on the Sahrawi cause and reaffirm AU-linked efforts for peace and stability. BRICS & Security Cooperation: At BRICS anti-drug agency talks in Guwahati, Ethiopia’s chargé d’affaires Nebiyu Tedla backed stronger intelligence sharing and coordination, with India proposing a dedicated BRICS virtual working group. Human Rights in Tigray: Human Rights Watch alleges Tigray authorities have forcibly recruited civilians, including children as young as 15, since April 2026, describing mass roundups and a climate of fear. Climate Diplomacy: COP32 President-designate Gedion Timothewos held talks with COP30 President-designate André Aranha Corrêa do Lago on preparations for Ethiopia’s 2027 summit. Economy & Trade: Ethiopia and Korea Exim Bank reaffirmed a push to accelerate EDCF-financed infrastructure and development projects, while Ethiopia reported record coffee export earnings of $3B in 2025/26. Digital Payments: EthSwitch said it posted ETB 2.6B gross profit before tax as interoperable digital payments surged, with major migration to instant payment systems.

EU-EUDR Coffee Watch: Ethiopia’s Coffee and Tea Authority says the EU’s deforestation rules won’t threaten exports, pointing to shade-grown production, claims that 99% of farms are deforestation-free, and a digital QR/geo-tracing system for plot-level traceability. Human Rights in Tigray: Human Rights Watch alleges Tigray authorities have abducted and forcibly recruited civilians, including children as young as 15, since April 2026, describing night raids, detentions, and transfers to training camps amid renewed federal-TPLF tensions. BRICS Anti-Drug Push: India is proposing a dedicated BRICS virtual working group for anti-drug cooperation, with a focus on synthetic drugs, precursor diversion, intelligence sharing, and joint coordination as BRICS anti-drug chiefs meet in Guwahati. Ethiopia Coffee Milestone: Ethiopia reports record coffee export earnings of $3B in 2025/26, crediting coordinated value-chain efforts and continued growth from prior years. Health Education Diplomacy: Deputy PM Temesgen Tiruneh urges stronger African collaboration to build resilient health workforce education, highlighting Ethiopia’s AI and digital health education ambitions. Digital Payments Growth: EthSwitch reports ETB 2.6B gross profit before tax for 2025/26 and rising interoperable transactions, including migration to EthioPay Instant Payment System. Heritage and Tourism: Ethiopia’s Heritage Authority says international interest is growing after a Lalibela visit by ambassadors and heads of organizations, citing progress in conservation partnerships. Trade Ministry Targets: Ethiopia’s Trade and Regional Cooperation Ministry says it exceeded most fiscal-year targets, with core services fully digitalized and millions of online business licensing and registration services delivered.

Diplomatic Pressure: Nigeria warned South Africa that “all options remain on the table” over xenophobic killings of Nigerians, urging Pretoria to stop extra-judicial violence and bring perpetrators to justice. BRICS Cooperation: India will host BRICS anti-drug chiefs in Guwahati on July 6–7, focusing on synthetic drugs, precursor diversion, intelligence sharing, and capacity building, while BRICS women officials meet in Kochi on July 6–7 to push women-led governance, digital/financial inclusion, entrepreneurship, and climate action. Ethiopia’s Development Push: Ethiopia’s Deputy PM said the country is entering a “national resurgence” moment, with major projects like the Hawassa Lakefront Development Project aimed at long-term prosperity. Agriculture & Data: The Agricultural Transformation Institute says soil and groundwater mapping, cluster farming, mechanization, and input centers are producing visible gains for farmers. Economy & Exports: Ethiopia reported record coffee export earnings of $3bn for 2025/26, citing higher prices for specialty coffee and efforts to curb illegal trade. Capacity Building: Blue Ocean and WoubGet signed a partnership to expand professional training and logistics skills across Ethiopia and East Africa. Health: Heart Attack Ethiopia launched its fifth free cardiac surgery mission at MCM Hospital, aiming to train local teams for sustainable cardiovascular care.

Tourism & Coffee Boom: Ethiopia closed the week with a push to turn tourism into a growth engine and hit a record $3bn from coffee exports, with officials citing higher specialty prices and reforms to curb illegal trade. National Dialogue & Resurgence: Deputy PM Temesgen Tiruneh framed the moment as a “national resurgence,” linking major projects like the Hawassa Lakefront Development Project to long-term prosperity. Clean Ethiopia Campaign: The third “Clean Ethiopia for the Next Generations” drive was launched, tying waste, pollution and noise control to public health, tourism, investment and the Green Legacy agenda. Security & Military Readiness: ENDF leadership said reforms and modernization are underway amid a worsening Red Sea and Horn security environment, with external actors and armed groups blamed for destabilization. Agriculture Transformation: ATI reported visible gains from soil and groundwater mapping, cluster farming, mechanization and one-stop input centers. Business Climate Concern: A business-focused report argues conflict—not just inflation or FX—now poses the biggest threat to investment and corridor stability. Logistics & Skills: ESL began a China mission to accelerate vessel procurement, while Blue Ocean and WoubGet signed a training partnership to expand certified logistics and supply-chain skills across Ethiopia. Culture & Tech: Ethiopia’s animation “Sunday Morning” won an AGrAF prize at Annecy, and a panel at the Ethiopian Academy of Sciences debated AI’s role in protecting Ethiopian arts and intellectual property. Regional Flash: Jonglei State reported fresh fighting in Akobo’s Walgak Payam, with details still unclear.

Sudan Frontline (Blue Nile): The Sudanese Army says it has launched a large-scale offensive to retake Kurmuk from the RSF and SPLM/N-Al Hilu, a border town with Ethiopia whose control affects supply routes and access corridors. Ethiopia Economy (Coffee): Ethiopia reported a record $3bn from annual coffee exports in 2025/26, crediting higher prices for specialty coffee and reforms to curb contraband and wastage. Green Legacy Push (Environment & Diplomacy): Deputy PM Temesgen Tiruneh launched the third national “Clean Ethiopia for the Next Generations” campaign, linking it to the Green Legacy Initiative, corridor development, and riverbank rehabilitation; meanwhile, diplomats in Lalibela joined tree planting at the UNESCO rock-hewn churches. Security & Military Reform: ENDF Chief of Staff Field Marshal Birhanu Jula said reforms and modernization are under way amid a worsening Red Sea and Horn security environment, with external actors and armed groups allegedly working together to destabilize neighbors. Finance & Policy (IMF): The IMF approved Ethiopia’s fifth ECF review, releasing about $464m and adding $200m for Middle East shock absorption, while urging tight monetary policy to prevent renewed inflation. Governance & Oversight (Biodiversity fund): Ethiopia’s Biodiversity Institute says a long-idle access-and-benefit-sharing fund will finally reach communities after a federal audit exposed delays. Digital Tax Administration: A new inspection and accreditation board was set up under the electronic invoice directive to certify invoicing systems for security, integrity, and compliance.

Green Legacy Initiative (GLI): Ethiopia’s Catholic Church pledged full support for the national tree-planting drive, calling environmental care a spiritual duty and saying it will mobilize congregations, schools, health facilities and parishes. Diplomacy & Tourism: Diplomats visiting Lalibela joined GLI tree-planting at the UNESCO rock-hewn churches, linking heritage protection with climate action and pitching the move as a boost for Ethiopia’s tourism image. Finance & Reform: Ethiopia is set to buy BRICS New Development Bank shares (2,945 shares at $100,000 each), pending parliamentary approval, as part of a push for South-South development financing. Digital Governance: The Ministry of Revenues created an inspection and accreditation board for electronic invoicing systems, aiming to certify software security and compliance before deployment. Human Rights: EHRCO accused government forces of abuses in South Ethiopia’s Zayse Woreda, alleging deaths, injuries, sexual violence, mass arrests and looting between June 18-29. Banking & Digital Payments: CBE reported it dominates digital finance, handling 3.48 billion digital transactions worth over 22 trillion birr, with 70% market share.

AU Somalia Mission Under US Pressure: The US says it will block UN funding for the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), a move that could end operations that rely on UN logistics and medical support for troops from countries including Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya. US Immigration Policy Hits TPS Holders: The Trump administration moves to cancel Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for people from disaster- and violence-affected countries, with the Supreme Court already clearing the way; reporting notes countries including Ethiopia among those affected. Sudan–Ethiopia Border Fighting: Sudan’s army launches a large offensive to retake Kurmuk in Blue Nile, a strategic border city near Ethiopia, after RSF and allied SPLM-N captured it in March. Ethiopia Energy Reform Backed: Development partners, including the World Bank, reaffirm support for Ethiopia’s energy sector reforms, linking reliable power to jobs and women’s economic opportunities. Ethiopia Coffee Milestone: Ethiopia hits a record $3bn in coffee export earnings for the fiscal year, with officials crediting reforms across the value chain. Ethiopia–Kenya Trade Formalisation: Ethiopia’s Customs Commission issues a directive to formalize small-scale cross-border trade with Kenya, aiming to curb contraband and bring informal commerce under licensing and simplified procedures. Diplomacy and Peacebuilding: ENA reports on Ethiopia’s national dialogue as a legal, grassroots pathway to peace, with diplomats visiting Lalibela amid growing international recognition.